Tim's Guide
A quick guide to assessing conditions for rowing

 Ground rules for acceptable conditions for rowing:

  1. Wind
    Wind blows the boats around and creates waves.
    Winds from the E through WSW cause chop in Port Townsend Bay along the town's water front if the winds are stronger than 4-5 mph.
    Winds from the W through NE upto 10-12 mph will not create much chop on the sheltered town waterfront but can blow the boats around especially between the Coop and the west end of BoatHaven. Winds stronger than this can create chop and make the boats uncontrollable.
    Also winds can blow up fast - again a good reason to check the forecasts to see how the wind is predicted to change.
  2. Waves / Chop
    Calm water or largely flat water with riffles are ideal for rowing.
    A slight to moderate chop can be rowable with an experienced crew.
    Whitecaps visible anywhere on the Bay is too rough to row.
  3. Fog
    If you cannot consistently see the Ferry Dock from the Kayak House it is definitely too foggy to row.
    Often in the fall the coastal stratus (fog banks) roll in for the Strait of Juan De Fuca and will hog the coast of Whidbey, sometimes coming across to Marrowstone Island. Experience suggests that the fogbanks will remain there and it can be OK to row. While rowing coxes and the launch driver should keep an eye on the fog banks. If the fogbank starts (or seeming to be starting) in towards the boats - head for home
  4. Temperature
    The club rarely rows when the conditions are below 40. It is easy to get borderline hypothermic. 
    If conditions are near freezing check the condition of the boat ramp to see if it iced before taking the boats down to the water. If it is icy use common sense and proceed slowly and carefully down the ramp.
    Read Dianne Roberts' thoughts on Cold Weather Rowing
  5. Rain
    Light rain or drizzle is generally not an impediment to rowing. Heavy rain or showers can impede visibility and cause a shell to fill with water.
    Again use common sense (and a quick check of the weather radar) to decide whether to row.

How to remotely check conditions for a row:

Several days ahead of the row:

  1. Check the Five Day Table Forecast

    The National Weather Service runs humungous computer models of weather across the country - here's an easy to read snapshot for Port Townsend. It's predictions of wind speeds tend to be high but the right order of magnitude. If the link seems strange - it is. I had to use a URL remapping service to make the link work on this site.

    Five days out the forecasts can change significantly but by 48 hours out they are pretty accurate - I would use a high wind forecast from this site to cancel a row

    More detail on the forecasted windspeeds. When forecasters talk about wind they mention sustained and gust speeds. The models average the two. It is often reasonable to halve the wind speed given in the forecast table.

  2. Also check the Forecaster discussion - this will indicate the confidence of the forecasters and why they change the forecasts. There are references to the computer models they use and why, based on their experience, they change the forecasts. Good information.

On the morning / afternoon of the row:

  1. Check the Morgan Hill Weather Station 
    This weather station is on the top of Morgan Hill. The summary of conditions is pretty good. In the bottom frame there are three graphs - the middle one shows wind speed and wind direction for the last 24 hours. This is very useful as you can easily see patterns where the wind is getting stronger and how the wind direction is varying.
  2. Check the following webcams:
    Fire Dept - you can pan the camera around and get a general idea of conditions. If the camera is shaking it is probably too windy to row.
    Ferry Webcam - if stil in operation will show the water conditions at the ferry dock.
    Courthouse camera looking west - what is the mill plume doing? Is it drifting gently upwards or being swept down to sea level and heading south?
  3. Check the weather radar for incoming rain (if it is in the forecast). The radar images will give you a pretty good idea if rain squalls are headed to the bay
  4. Finally if you're still really undecided, head down the hill and look at the water from the Kayak House.

Caveat:

These are just the steps I use to monitor conditions - they are not infallible but are pretty good.

Safety on the water boils down the vigorous and unflinching use of common sense. If you are unsure whether the conditions are OK to row - then they are probably not.

It is better to sit out an iffy row in a coffee shop than to suffer through bad conditions or worse stiil have to call out emergency services to rescue you.

Be safe and have fun!

Comments / suggestions for improvement to Tim